Both literally and figuratively, winter is coming for HBO’s original programming. Game of Thrones is more than halfway through its sixth season, but with the showrunners saying there will likely be only two more seasons, what will take its place to lead HBO’s schedule once that “winter” has arrived?
More importantly, how did HBO get in such a position that the network desperately needs a new hit series?
Promising Shows Falter
Over the last couple years, HBO has introduced the world to several new shows that received rave reviews early on. Unfortunately for the company, however, some have bottomed out quicker than they would’ve wanted.
Take True Detective, for example. From a personal standpoint, the first season was one of the best ever seen on television. Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson were brilliant together, creating a dynamic that would be nearly impossible to recreate in future seasons. However, it’s important to keep in mind what made McConaughey and Harrelson great wasn’t just the way they portrayed their characters. It was also the scripts that were written for them to act out in character.
Nic Pizzolatto had reportedly been working on True Detective season one for a long time, which gave him a lot of room for creative writing growth. Once his first season was a smashing hit with viewers and critics, HBO wanted a second season fast. They got one within two years, but it was a massive disappointment. This caused former HBO Programming President Michael Lombardo to take the blame for season two’s failures:
“Well, you know what? I set him up. To deliver, in a very short time frame, something that became very challenging to deliver,” Lombardo said on KPCC’s The Frame. “That’s not what that show is. He had to reinvent the wheel, so to speak. Find his muse. And so I think that’s what I learned from it. Don’t do that anymore.”
But True Detective isn’t the only show in recent HBO memory to have faltered early on. Vinyl had the star power of Martin Scorsese, Mick Jagger and Terence Winter (Boardwalk Empire) behind it, but didn’t receive the greatest audience and critic reviews either. It drew around 764,000 viewers for the series premiere on Feb. 14, and only drew more than 700,000 viewers two more times during the 10-episode first season.
On top of these two big disappointments, HBO has had some recent trouble getting shows off the ground to begin with.
Promising Shows Delayed
Way back on Nov. 17, 2014, HBO posted the following Vine.
https://vine.co/v/O5Vqx2dLvmZ
The video teased the upcoming series Westworld, a science fiction thriller series created by Jonathan Nolan (brother of Inception and Interstellar director Christopher Nolan) and Lisa Joy. The show is based on the 1973 film of the same name, produced with J.J. Abrams and Bryan Burk, and is described below:
“A dark odyssey about the dawn of artificial consciousness and the future of sin.”
Sounds pretty good, huh? Well, as you can see from the Vine, Westworld was originally supposed to come out in 2015. But then the show ran into several alleged speed bumps and won’t premiere until later this year.
Westworld isn’t the only case of an HBO show that was delayed, or in some cases canceled, before even hitting the air, as VOX pointed out in a recent piece on HBO’s past, present, and future.
David Fincher, the critically acclaimed director of Gone Girl, The Social Network, and Fight Club had two projects stall in development HBO. Utopia was supposed to be an adaptation by Fincher based on the British series of the same name about fans of a graphic novel that successfully predicted many world disasters. It had a great cast that was led by Rooney Mara, but was canceled and the cast was released due to budget concerns.
Fincher still has a comedy about music video producers called Videosynchrazy that could still be picked up. But for now, he’s moved onto Mindhunter, a FBI drama for Netflix, where he developed House of Cards.
Promising Shows are Coming
In 2017, HBO will introduce a new series that some people say will replace the nudity the network will miss when Game Of Thrones concludes. That new series is called The Deuce. It’s the newest project from David Simon (The Wire, Treme) and has an incredible cast which includes James Franco, Maggie Gyllenhaal, and The Wire‘s Dominique Fishback. The description of the show makes it seem perfect for HBO.
“A look at life in New York City during the 1970s and ’80s when porn and prostitution were rampant in Manhattan.”
Westworld and The Deuce seem like two potential major hits coming as Game Of Thrones starts to wrap up and other former hits like Girls are canceled. But still the question remains: What went wrong and what can be fixed to make sure HBO really does succeed in the future?
A Closer Look at What Went Wrong
We already discussed what went wrong in terms of shows being delayed and others being straight up canceled, but there have been other issues with HBO’s original programming over the past decade.
FiveThirtyEight did a great analysis on HBO’s programming since its inception, and some of the points are pretty important to keep in mind. First off, the network might be relying too much on a singular series to carry the network instead of multiple shows.
As 538 points out, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, HBO had some powerhouse shows in its lineup, such as Oz, The Sopranos, and Sex And the City. All three of those shows drew impressive viewership ratings and critic reviews. While Oz started off as arguably HBO’s top show and The Sopranos was the last big headliner until the mid-2000s when the network went into a slump, neither series was carrying the weight of the other shows on its shoulders.
The same case can’t be made today. Veep and Silicon Valley are two quality shows that have done a lot for HBO, airing right after Game Of Thrones, but they aren’t enough to put the current HBO at the same level as the early 2000s version. Part of this is because there isn’t enough other solid programming around those three shows for that to be the case.
“The average yearly episode score through 1997 never topped 8. In 2001, that figure was 8.44 — the highest annual average of all the years I analyzed — because of a strong mix of shows that included “Band of Brothers,” “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” “Oz,” “Six Feet Under” and “The Sopranos.” – 538
Just look at that lineup. In the year 2001, HBO wasn’t just relying on The Sopranos, Oz, and Sex And The City, even though those three shows were so strong. The network also had shows like Band of Brothers and Six Feet Under to help lengthen the schedule throughout the tyear. In short, HBO had a long list of multiple-season and singular-season programming to help carry the network.
Once again, that’s not the case today. Some of HBO’s newer programming started off strong, but failed to keep it going. (True Detective, for example.) Additionally, the network really hasn’t had a singular-season program that succeeded as well as Band of Brothers did for quite some time. So that’s the issue right now at HBO: It’s relying too much on a couple shows instead of the entire lineup to receive great audience and critic reviews.
What Can Be Done Going Forward
For one, get Westworld and The Deuce on the air. Both shows are loaded with talented casts, and proven writers and producers working behind the scenes to make the shows into what HBO needs them to be. On top of that, start formulating a plan for what to do when Game Of Thrones comes to a close.
There’s no way HBO hasn’t already started to come up with its plan for a post-Game Of Thrones era of programming. The show costs around $10 million an episode, which means HBO will have a lot more money to go around once the saga finishes. As a result, HBO must figure out what to do with that money and how to keep those viewers.
Some of the money might have already been allocated to new projects such as Westworld and The Deuce, along with Bill Simmons’ new show Any Given Wednesday that coincides with the launch of his website, The Ringer. But still, it’s hard to imagine there won’t be more money to go around after those shows premiere and Game Of Thrones ends, right?
It’s safe to say the answer is yes, but HBO still has two years (we think) to decide what to do, or at least tell the world what it plans on doing. For now, Westworld and The Deuce, along with three new comedies set to premiere this fall, is a start. It just remains to be seen if those series will help spread the creative weight throughout the yearly schedule like HBO’s lineup did in the early 2000s, or if a couple will have to carry the network on its shoulders, as has been the case in recent years.
