At face value, Jay Leno seemed rather gracious during his 60 Minutes interview, acknowledging that his time had come as host of The Tonight Show. He had kind words about his successor.
"I really like Jimmy Fallon," Leno said. "I think he's terrific."
Leno quickly went on to explain the sort of thing that Fallon does on his show which he doesn't — and knows he can't do. Maybe Leno didn't want that sentence about liking Fallon to hang there ominously. Though the words did seem to echo, even as Leno kept talking. Haven't we heard this sort of thing from Leno before? It's rather easy to remember because it wasn't so long ago that he expressed similar feelings toward Conan O'Brien, who was set to take over The Tonight Show from Leno four years ago.
Fortunately, as TIME's James Poniewozik observed, Steve Kroft noticed this and pointed out the resemblance to Leno.
"You said all of the same things," Kroft noted, "exactly about Conan."
"Huh? Did I say the same things?" Leno said. "Yeah, prob— well, maybe I did, yeah. Well, we'll see what happens." Leno then giggled the giggle of someone who probably doesn't have anything to lose. Or perhaps it was the giggle of someone planning to bide his time until NBC's latest attempt to replace him doesn't work out and the network comes back to Leno once again to take back The Tonight Show and lift it back to No. 1 in the ratings.
That's presuming, of course, that Jimmy Fallon doesn't succeed when he takes over The Tonight Show. There will surely be some adjustment among viewers as Fallon's high-energy, more playful style — with a far more modern sensibility toward music and viral content — presents a contrast to Leno's folksier comedy, especially his longer monologue that catches people up on the news of the day and current pop culture.
Yet Fallon's comedy isn't as odd as O'Brien's, which leans on the absurd. Fallon's more of a performer. He doesn't try to challenge the audience. Fallon just wants the audience to join in and have fun with him. It certainly seems possible that he could reach an even wider audience than Leno, continuing to score cool points by having The Roots as his house band, for instance, while hosting major figures like Michelle Obama on his show. This has a far better chance of working and Leno probably knows it, which is why he approached Kroft and 60 Minutes for this nationally televised exit interview.
However, it only took NBC five months to change its mind about giving Leno the 10 o'clock hour in prime time five nights a week, as network affiliates complained about their local news ratings tanking. Meanwhile, O'Brien's Tonight Show was sinking in the ratings as he just couldn't catch on with Leno's audience. That led to NBC deciding to give Leno the 11:35 p.m. time slot back, with O'Brien's show getting pushed back to 12:05. But O'Brien balked and worked to take his act to another network. This resulted in some of the best late-night TV we've seen in years, as O'Brien skewered NBC nightly in his monologue, while Leno took shots on his show from comedians such as Jimmy Kimmel.
Four years later, who won this scorched-earth battle?
O'Brien took a sympathy tour around the country before making the surprise move to TBS. His position there seems secure, though he often places behind The Daily Show and The Colbert Report in cable ratings. But he still has his own show, creates content or conducts interviews that go viral on social media and can likely do whatever the hell he wants on TBS, rather than have to change his act to suit Tonight Show viewers.
Leno got The Tonight Show back and brought it back to No. 1 in late-night ratings, a place it still holds in the latest numbers. Yet four years later, here we go again with NBC leading Leno toward the door in favor of a younger, hipper replacement. And last time around, whether fair or not, Leno became a hated figure, a villain. It's been intriguing to see which side between Leno and Conan comedians have taken during the past four years. (I wouldn't necessarily have expected the likes of Bill Maher or Louis C.K. to fall on Team Jay. But maybe it's not quite that simple. The Tonight Show is still an institution, especially for comedians.)
Though Leno isn't a figure that draws much sympathy for his feud with O'Brien — and going further back, his original battle over The Tonight Show with David Letterman after Johnny Carson retired — he certainly has cause to wonder how he's being pushed out again when his show remains so successful.
But Leno himself acknowledged that at his age, it's getting increasingly difficult to keep up on current pop culture. At 64 years old, maybe he feels more silly having to crack about Justin Bieber all the time. Leno also likely sees a media landscape in which Fallon becomes a national discussion topic on social media and cable news when he performs on stage with Bruce Springsteen to make fun of New Jersey governor Chris Christie. Kimmel pranked pop culture with his "twerking FAIL" video that became a social media sensation before he revealed he was behind the joke.
When is the last time that anything Leno did on The Tonight Show got that kind of attention? He'll have a good joke in his monologue or perhaps a notable interview with a guest, but it's not the same thing. Leno always had the ratings in his favor, but it sounds like he can see it becoming more difficult to keep up with his younger, more tuned-in competition. Can he give the people what they want?
Another reason why Leno's 60 Minutes interview may have been more of a concession speech, rather than a reminder that he's still No. 1 and doesn't deserve to be moved off the air, is that he doesn't have the leverage that he did four years ago. Kimmel has the 11:35 p.m. slot at ABC now, so that's not available. FOX doesn't seem interested in a late-night TV show, especially because its network programming cuts off at 10 p.m. After the news, affiliates make big money filling that time in with syndicated reruns. That leaves cable, but how many options does Leno really have there?
Leno told Kroft that he's not interested in starting another late-night talk show, saying what he's done with The Tonight Show can't be recreated. Yet is he saying he's not interested because there's no offer currently on the table? With his track record of success, doesn't it seem like some network out there would be willing to give him that opportunity? It seems like FOX would have to be thinking about it. But with few — if any — recourses, maybe Leno sees the chance to do something different, to reinvent himself in some regard. Why try to do The Tonight Show somewhere else when he's already had the real thing?
Maybe he'll be a resident stand-up in Las Vegas. Perhaps he'll build a show around his famous love for cars and his vast collection of vintage automobiles. (Leno threw The History Channel out there during his interview with Kroft as a place he might find a fit, but quickly dismissed the possibility. History Channel execs may still have been listening, Jay. Would he do a better Top Gear than the current U.S. version in production?) And if he can't find a place on cable, maybe Leno could create an online program, much like Jerry Seinfeld's Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee.
I'll admit that I went into the Leno 60 Minutes interview looking for disingenuous remarks, anything that betrayed villainous intent. Watch your back, Jimmy Fallon! Leno will take your job in a second! But I've watched the piece a few times now and I do think that Leno has tired of the fight. This is the second time he's gone through this. What more does he have to do for NBC? Though Leno is still more than willing to portray himself as the victim here — and I still don't believe he was as innocent in the Conan debacle as he'd have us think — maybe he sees the value in bowing out gracefully and professionally.
Though looking to see if Leno will somehow make it back to NBC makes for juicy gossip and soap opera, it might be more intriguing to anticipate where he might land next. Maybe the guy who most of us see as bland and catering to the widest common denominator has some surprises in store. That would be far more exciting than another late-night talk show.
