Correctly predicting how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will vote on the Golden Globes is not easy. Actually, it might be impossible.
The HFPA are the 85 non-American journalists who vote on whims, attempt to stay ahead of the Hollywood curve as far as nominating for “hipness,” and have no tangible idea of what constitutes a comedic movie: Last time I checked, Nebraska, Her and The Wolf of Wall Street weren’t comedies.
But they try to be ahead of the curve as far as acknowledgement goes, and will drop certain nominees — television shows, especially — if the buzz has cooled. This year is no different: There are no acting nominations or show nominations for Mad Men, Boardwalk Empire,or Homeland, none for Pixar and — while still eligible and highly deserving — the final season of 30 Rock received no acting or show recognition either, other than Tina Fey serving as one of the ceremony’s two hosts. But it was nice to see Orphan Black’s Tatiana Maslany and Orange is the New Black’s Taylor Schilling both receive their very first acting nods.
Sometimes the HFPA nominates films and television shows for being either shot in a foreign country or produced by a foreign company like Ron Howard’s F1 movie Rush and Starz’s White Queen and Dancing on the Edge, which no one has seen. (We all remember The Tourist being nominated, right?)
My largest gripe with the HFPA is that the best supporting actor/actress nominations for television are taken from dramas, comedies, musicals, miniseries and motion pictures made for television, which means that Modern Family’s Eric Stonestreet and Ty Burrell and Game of Thrones’ Peter Dinklage are locked out because Rob Lowe’s performance in Behind the Candelabra is in the same category.
The one advantage that the Globes has over any other award show is alcohol. (There’s a chance that Jennifer Lawrence will get to give an acceptance speech. She’ll be liquored up.) It’s loose, schmoozy and nonchalant, yet still taken seriously by the winners and endured by the nominees whose studios make them dress up and eat dinner on camera. There are no technical categories, makeup categories or set design categories to drag the show. There are only acting, writing and directing awards. Fey and her Hollywood best friend Amy Poehler are back as hosts for a second consecutive year, allowing us to lovingly mock famous people with friends and forget that Ricky Gervais ever existed.
Like I said, predicting the decisions of the HFPA is like trying to predict when George Clooney will get married (never), but here are my predictions and why.
Best Motion Picture, Drama
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
Captain Phillips
Winner: Gravity — This is a very close call but I think Gravity will beat out 12 Years for Best Drama. Though most of the movie is Sandra Bullock and George Clooney tumbling around and crying in space, the technical achievement of Gravity will put it over the top. Remember that the Golden Globes gave Best Drama to Avatar. And Gravity doesn’t have the plot of Pocahontas like Avatar does, so it has an even better chance of winning.
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
American Hustle
Winner: American Hustle — Once again, these are comedies? I guess Inside Llewyn Davis would qualify as a musical, but that’s stretching it. David O. Russell’s hectic, frantic 1970s throwback was no Silver Linings Playbook, but it will still win.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Winner: Alfonso Cuarón — Cuarón will get the deserved recognition for all those special effects and crafting a good, mostly scientifically accurate movie on top of them.
Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus,Enough Said
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Winner: Amy Adams — Betting against Meryl might be a cardinal sin but Amy Adams’s movie was reviewed more favorably. Amy Adams has been nominated five times before and has never won, and she just so happens to be in every film this award season. She’s due.
<pBest Actor, Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix — While Bruce Dern could nab the award as a lifetime achievement award of sorts, but the HFPA loves upsets and Joaquin beating Leo and Christian Bale and Dern would make headlines.
Best Actress, Drama
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Winner: Cate Blanchett — Lock it in. Dench and Thompson are beloved by the HFPA, but it’s Blanchett.
Best Actor, Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Winner: Matthew McConaughey — This one is a toss-up between McConaughey and Ejiofor, who could ride this win into a streak all the way to the Oscars. McConaughey lost mountains of weight that he didn’t need to lose and has solidified himself as a legitimate actor with his recent streak of films and now HBO’s True Detective. He’s not just a hunk anymore, ladies.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Winner: Lupita Nyong’o — It would be too easy for JLaw to win in back-to-back years, plus she’s only in American Hustle for maybe 30 minutes. Nyong’o is a standout amongst an already stacked cast of 12 Years a Slave.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
<pWinner: Jared Leto — Similar to McConaughey, the physical transformation from Leto will set him apart from the other nominees. It will be a major upset if he loses.
Best Screenplay for a Motion Picture
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle
Winner: American Hustle — This screenplay is a car whose brake lines have been cut, and voters will love that. Voters love verbosity and since Aaron Sorkin isn’t in the category, Russell and Singer get this one.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
Winner: Frozen — No Pixar? Doesn’t matter, Disney still wins.
Best Foreign Language Film
Blue Is the Warmest Color (France)
The Great Beauty
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Past (Iran)
The Wind Rises (Japan)
Winner: Blue is the Warmest Color — This might get a non-foreign film category Best Picture nomination at award shows that nominate more than five movies. It also won the Palme d’Or at Cannes. Lock this one in.
Best Original Song
“Let It Go,” Frozen
“Atlas,” The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
“Please Mr. Kennedy,” Inside Llewyn Davis
“Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Sweeter Than Fiction,” One Chance
Winner: “Ordinary Love” — A category with Coldplay, Taylor Swift, Justin Timberlake and U2 is surprisingly stacked for an Original Song category but U2’s “Ordinary Love” takes it because, well, they’re U2 and Mandela is still on the minds of the voters.
Best Original Score
Alexander Ebert, All Is Lost
John Williams, The Book Thief
Steven Price, Gravity
Alex Heffes, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave
Winner: Steven Price – Gravity’s soundtrack would have been better if it was arranged by Brian Eno or some other ambient genius, but Price’s soundtrack only adds to the grand scale of the massive movie.
Best TV Drama
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
Masters of Sex
House of Cards
Winner: Breaking Bad — Even though last season wasn’t the incredible television that the final season was, the momentum of the final run will propel Breaking Bad over newcomers Masters of Sex and House of Cards.
Best TV Comedy
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Girls
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation
Winner: Girls — The Emmys are still in love with Modern Family, and Parks and Rec will probably never win anything, no matter how deserving it may be. But the Globes like the alternative role of awarding Girls with things. They’ve done it before.
Best TV Miniseries or Movie
American Horror Story: Coven
Behind the Candelabra
Dancing on the Edge
Top of the Lake
White Queen
Winner: Behind the Candelabra — It could’ve been released theatrically, but instead it will win all of these miniseries awards.
Best Actress in a TV Series, Drama
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Winner: Taylor Schilling — Calling the upset! The Globes are the first to nominate Schilling and could be the first to award her for an obsessed-over show. But Kerry Washington winning wouldn’t surprise me.
Best Actor in a TV Series, Drama
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
James Spader, The Blacklist
Winner: Bryan Cranston — Cranston better start practicing his acceptance speeches for the next year of awards. His portrayal of Walter White might be one of the best acting performances ever on television. And poor Jon Hamm isn’t even getting nominated anymore.
Best Actress in a TV Series, Comedy
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Lena Dunham, Girls
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus — This is another lock. But once again, Amy Poehler should win one of these things eventually. But she probably won’t.
Best Actor in a TV Series, Comedy
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Winner: Jim Parsons — I don’t like Parsons winning. I really loved it when they gave this award to Matt LeBlanc. But Parsons has either hypnotized all of the voters or they’re seeing something I don’t see in Sheldon. He has three Emmys and one Golden Globe already.
Best Actress in a TV Miniseries or Movie
Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
Rebecca Ferguson, White Queen
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
Winner: Jessica Lange — This is a toss-up between Lange and Bonham-Carter but American Horror Story has become a cult hit and might put Lange over the top.
Best Actor in a TV Miniseries or Movie
Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Idris Elba, Luther
Al Pacino, Phil Spector
Winner: Michael Douglas — Because he’s Michael Douglas.
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Series, Miniseries, or Motion Picture
Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge
Janet McTeer, White Queen
Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Winner: Sofia Vergara — Wishful thinking.
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Series, Miniseries, or Motion Picture
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan
Winner: Rob Lowe — Even though Lowe is only in his movie for a small amount of time, he would complete the Behind the Candelabra sweep.
