With the Game of Thrones TV series nearly past all of the book plots that the show plans on including, fan theories have become even more relevant on the internet and in casual conversations. Season six is halfway over, and with many major theories still out there, let’s look at them and rate which ones are most likely to either be true or appear in season six.
Warning: Spoilers from the books, theories, and show may be afoot. Since we’re all caught up, it shouldn’t be a big deal. But just in case, don’t complain.
The fifth episode of season six, “The Door,” ended fan speculation for how the White Walkers first came to be and what the origin of “Hodor” was. What these two revelations also did was put a bigger emphasis on other fan theories that could be solved later this season. Some theories may be answered in season six’s remaining five episodes, but others may have to wait until the series sadly concludes.
Below is a ranking of seven popular fan theories, in order from least likely to be decoded this season to most likely. Also included is my personal opinion on the likelihood of that theory being true or possible at all.
Bran Drives the King Aerys (The Mad King) Mad:
After “The Door,” this fan theory really started to pick up steam. With Bran being the reason for Hodor becoming well, Hodor, a lot of fans began to pile on the “Bran also turned King Aerys into the Mad King” bandwagon.
Here’s how one version of the theory works: Bran goes back in time to try and stop King Aerys from burning his grandfather Rickard and uncle Brandon. By talking to Aerys in this way, the King goes mad.
The issue with that theory is that King Aerys was already mad long before burning Bran’s grandfather and uncle. Instead, the more appropriate and likely version of this theory is Bran goes further back to when Aerys became King and tries to talk sense into him then.
The reason why this is the least likely theory to become true of the seven listed is because Targaryens had been driven by madness for generations before Aerys II became mad and eventually, the Mad King. As detailed on the Game Of Thrones wiki:
“House Targaryen carries the trait for insanity in its bloodline. Over three hundred years of heavy inbreeding, marrying brother to sister whenever possible to “keep the bloodline pure,” resulted in many of the medical problems seen with incest, particularly mental instability.”
With all of these factors, I’ll give this theory a 0% chance of being solved this season.
Dany and Jon are twins:
That’s right, some people think Daenerys Targaryen and Jon Snow are secretly twins. The way this theory goes is that Dany isn’t actually the last child of King Aerys II and instead, the daughter of Rhaegar Targaryen along with Jon Snow. Of course, this means that the last theory in this piece, R+L=J, is also true.
One major point of debate for this theory being false is that different calculations have Dany being born in 284 AC and Jon in 283 AC, although that will always be debated as George R.R. Martin has never given an official date for their births.
A major show point as to why this may be true is from season one. When Eddard Stark was the Hand of the King to Robert Baratheon, King Robert stated he wanted Dany killed so that she would no longer threaten his reign. Ned profusely stated he would not be involved in her murder, and thus the separation between Ned and Robert began to widen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpNbIzszY4k
This theory has its pros and cons, and overall it’s nowhere near as likely to occur at all as the next five on this list. Therefore, I’ll give this theory a 10% chance of being resolved this season.
Tyrion Lannister is a Targaryen:
During King Aerys II rule of the Seven Kingdoms, Tyrion Lannister’s father, Tywin, got into multiple fights with King Aerys. Most of the fights revolved around Tywin’s wife, Joanna.
The way the theory goes is this: On Tywin and Joanna’s wedding night, the drunk King Aerys claimed he had Kingly rights to take Joanna to bed before Tywin did. Whether this piece is true or not, fans believe Aerys used either blackmail, seduction, or his powers as king to have a secret relationship with Joanna. When Joanna got pregnant with Tyrion, she tried to stop the pregnancy, thus causing Tyrion to be an “imp.” What makes this theory more likely is the fact that Joanna died during childbirth, which is what happened to Dany and Jon’s mothers.
Fans of this theory believe Tywin knew of Tyrion’s secret lineage, and that’s why he always treated Tyrion differently than Jamie and Cersei. To add onto this, Tyrion being a secret Targaryen could be the reason why he is so obsessed with dragons.
With all of this in mind, we’ll give this theory a 15% chance of being solved this season.
Three Heads of the Dragon:
There are three dragons under Dany’s control. After Dany rode Drogon at the end of last season, more people began to talk about the other two dragons and questioned who may ride them in “The Great War.” Keeping in mind the theory previously discussed and the last one on this list, it’s widely speculated the other two dragons will be ridden by a combination of Jon Snow, Tyrion Lannister, and Bran Stark (albeit through warging).
All of this stems from a prophetic dream Dany has in the book series that hasn’t been shown in the series:
“The fifth room, finally, shows a man very much alike her brother Viserys, except that he is taller and has eyes of dark indigo rather than lilac. He is speaking to a woman who is nursing a newborn babe, telling her that the child’s name should be Aegon and saying that “What better name for a king?” The woman asks him if he will make a song for the child, and he replies that he has a song and that “He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire.” He appears to look at Dany then, as if seeing her, and then he adds that ‘There must be one more,’ and ‘The dragon has three heads.'”
So who will be the three heads of the three dragons? Way back in 2000, GRRM was signing copies of his book when a fan asked about the three dragon riders. The author of the prophecy and series responded with:
“Three heads of the dragon… yes… but the third will not nessesarily BE a Targaryen…” – GRRM
That is why there is strong support for Bran to be one of the dragon riders although he would most likely be “riding” his through his power of warging. As for the other dragon riders, it’s most likely the third will be either Tyrion or Jon and, more specifically, whichever of the two is in fact a Targaryen. If they both end up being Targaryens, well, then I have no idea which it will be. Although my guess would be Jon, because of the Azor Ahai theory (which, by the way, is about seven different theories in one).
Seeing as it’s highly, highly unlikely the dragons will need to be ridden into war this season, I’ll give this theory a 0% chance of being answered this season.
Cleganebowl:
Sandor “The Hound” Clegan vs. Gregor “The Mountain” Clegane. Although neither battles under that name. The quick reaction for people who hadn’t heard this before? They’re both dead! Well, The Mountain kind of is, but still, he’s not the same person.
Here’s how the theory goes: The Hound isn’t actually dead because he was just left to die and wasn’t actually killed on screen/page. As a result, he’s healed by the Elder Brother at the Quiet Isle’s monastery. As a result, he’s living a life as a gravedigger on the Isle. The Mountain, meanwhile, is simply Sandor Clegane reanimated as Sir Robert Strong under the service of Queen Cersei. When Cersei demands a trial by combat in her upcoming trial against the High Sparrow, Sir Robert Strong is her champion and The Hound is nominated as the Faith’s champion.
In the books, the gravedigger whom people believe is The Hound has apparently left his old life as The Hound, if that’s who he was, behind and no longer wants to engage in violence. However, The Hound always did have a strong hatred for his brother, so one would think he’d abandon his newfound religion if only to finally kill his brother.
More reason to believe this is Ian McShane, who has apparently been cast as the Elder Brother and claims he will bring back a fan favorite this season. As a result, some fans believe he’ll bring back The Hound to fight The Mountain during Cersei’s trial by combat at the end of season six. With all the factors pointing towards the Cleganebowl becoming a reality this season, we’ll give this a 60% chance of happening.
The Great Northern Conspiracy:
So this one is very, very, very long. Instead of outlining the whole thing, here’s the short version: Rob Stark’s bannermen under his guidance put a plan in place to make Jon Snow the King of Winterfell if Rob were to pass away, which he did. As a result, they will rally around Jon and Sansa this season to take back Winterfell and kill Ramsay Bolton.
If you’d like to read the full analysis of this theory, here are parts one, two, three, four, five, six, and seven.
Now that you’re probably done reading all of those, or not, we’ll give this an 85% chance of being resolved this season. The reason why it’s so high? Well, the way things are going this season for Jon and Sansa, where they are going in the next couple of episodes, and trailer analysis all point to this being true. Here’s to the new KING OF THE NORTH!
R+L=J:
Rhaegar Targaryen plus Lyanna Stark equals Jon Snow. Yes, Jon Snow is possibly a Targaryen, as mentioned earlier here. Just like the Great Northern Conspiracy, there are many parts to this theory and its likelihood. Here’s a video that does an incredible job of piecing together why this is most likely true:
In case you didn’t watch the video, he’s a breakdown: Lyanna wasn’t actually kidnapped by Rhaegar and instead, the two eloped because they loved each other. This event was what jumpstarted Robert’s Rebellion because Lyanna was betrothed to Robert Baratheon, whom she didn’t love while he loved her. Rhaegar got Lyanna pregnant and then when the war started, had her guarded at the Tower of Joy. Once the war ended, Eddard Stark went without knowing what he’d truly find. When he found Lyanna dying, he made her a promise, as detailed way back in the first book of the series, but was never explicitly stated. What fans believe is that Eddard promised he wouldn’t tell anyone Jon was Lyanna and Rhaegar’s son, because then he’d most likely be killed for being a Targaryen.
Furthermore, other reasons from the book or show for this theory being true revolve around showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss. The two have stated multiple times that the only reason they were able to create the show is because they correctly answered GRRM’s question of “Who is Jon Snow’s mother?” The other was Benioff wearing a shirt with “R+L=J” on it.
Overall, based on what has happened already this season at the Tower and what is likely to come, we’ll give this theory both a 95% chance of being true and being answered this season.
All of these fan theories are fascinating because they all could have major implications on main characters, this season’s storyline, or the end point of the series as a whole. Only time will tell if they are answered in both the show and the books, one or the other, or neither.
Valar Morghulis.
